Monday, May 29, 2006
Do Amnesty programs reduce illegal immigration?
Apparently not. Here are two articles about the effect of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) on undocumented immigration published in 1992 and 2003. For 34 years our government winked at employers who hired illegals (Texas Proviso). Then in 1986 a law was passed making that unlawful, and granting amnesty to those who were already here. Did it reduce illegal immigration? No. Look at the mess we have now and the bungling the Senate is going through.
Abstract: Stemming the tide? Assessing the deterrent effects of the immigration Reform and Control Act," by Katharine M. Donato, Jorge Durand, and Douglas S. Massey, Demography: Vol. 29, No. 2, May 1992, p. 139
This study uses a new source of data to assess the degree to which the IRCA deterred undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States. Data were collected from migrants interviewed in seven Mexican communities during the winters of 1987 through 1989, as well as from out-migrants from those communities who subsequently located in the United States. We conduct time-series experiements that examine changes in migrants' behavior before and after passage of the IRCA in 1986. We estimate trends in the probability of taking a first illegal trip, the probability of repeat migration, the probability of apprehension by the Border Patrol, the probability of using a border smuggler, and the costs of illegal border crossing. In none of these analyses could we detect any evidence that IRCA has significantly deterred undocumented migration from Mexico.
Abstract: "Do amnesty programs reduce undocumented immigration? Evidence from IRCA," by Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny, Demography: Vol. 40, No. 3, August 2003, p.437
This article examines whether mass legalization programs reduce future undocumented immigration. We focus on the effects of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly 2.7 million undocumented immigrants. We report that apprehensions of persons attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally declined immediately following passage of the law but returned to normal levels during the period when undocumented immigrants could file for amnesty and the years thereafter. Our finding suggest that the amnest program did not change long-term patterns of undocumented immigration from Mexico.
Illegal immigration
Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act
amnesty
Guest workers
Immigration Reform and Control Act
Abstract: Stemming the tide? Assessing the deterrent effects of the immigration Reform and Control Act," by Katharine M. Donato, Jorge Durand, and Douglas S. Massey, Demography: Vol. 29, No. 2, May 1992, p. 139
This study uses a new source of data to assess the degree to which the IRCA deterred undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States. Data were collected from migrants interviewed in seven Mexican communities during the winters of 1987 through 1989, as well as from out-migrants from those communities who subsequently located in the United States. We conduct time-series experiements that examine changes in migrants' behavior before and after passage of the IRCA in 1986. We estimate trends in the probability of taking a first illegal trip, the probability of repeat migration, the probability of apprehension by the Border Patrol, the probability of using a border smuggler, and the costs of illegal border crossing. In none of these analyses could we detect any evidence that IRCA has significantly deterred undocumented migration from Mexico.
Abstract: "Do amnesty programs reduce undocumented immigration? Evidence from IRCA," by Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny, Demography: Vol. 40, No. 3, August 2003, p.437
This article examines whether mass legalization programs reduce future undocumented immigration. We focus on the effects of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act, which granted amnesty to nearly 2.7 million undocumented immigrants. We report that apprehensions of persons attempting to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally declined immediately following passage of the law but returned to normal levels during the period when undocumented immigrants could file for amnesty and the years thereafter. Our finding suggest that the amnest program did not change long-term patterns of undocumented immigration from Mexico.
Illegal immigration
Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act
amnesty
Guest workers
Immigration Reform and Control Act
# posted by Norma : 5/29/2006 01:53:00 PM
